The Northern Sea Route: Russian Perspectives

Author

Alexandra Murtazaeva

Subjects

Ship design and development

Tags

Russia

RAN Ships

None noted.

Publication

March 2019 edition of the Naval Historical Review (all rights reserved)

The following article is by Alexandra Murtazaeva, a Russian student completing part of her international studies in Sydney. She has drawn upon recent Russian language news stories on this important topic and translated much of this material for our benefit.   

The Northern Sea Route (NSR), defined by the Federal Law of Shipping on the Water Area of the NSR as ‘a water area adjoining the northern coast of the Russian Federation’, has captivated Russian ambitions since as early as the 16th century. A part of the Northeast Passage, the NSR’s borders are currently established by the Federal Law as such: ‘Limited in the East by the line delimitating the sea areas with the United States of America and by the parallel of the Dezhnev Cape in the Bering Strait; in the West, by the meridian of the Cape Zhelanie to the Novaya Zemlya archipelago, by the east coastal line of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago and the western limits of the Matochkin Shar, Kara Gates, Yugorski Shar Straits’. Dmitry Gerasimov, Russian scholar, translator, cleric, and ambassador, who lived and worked in Novgorod c.1465-1535, was the first among his compatriots to suggest the possibility of a passage along the continental coast from the Northern Dvina River to the Chinese borders, and its practical potential for trade. Several following expeditions in search of the Northeast Passage, led by European explorers such as Hugh Willoughby and Willem Barentsz, failed to discover a possible practical route, but further expanded the understanding of the Russian Arctic.

Peter the Great, the first Russian Emperor, launched an impressive program of exploration of the Arctic coast of Siberia, which lasted long into the reign of Peter’s successors during the second quarter of the 18th century. The First (1724-29) and Second (1733-1743) Kamchatka expeditions, led by Vitus Bering, aimed at discovering a passage between Asia and America along the coast of Kamchatka. Mikhail Lomonosov, Russian 18th century scholar, scientist, and writer, was also interested in Arctic navigation and the Northern Sea Route’s opportunities for trade. A native of the north, Lomonosov summarised the experience and knowledge of the seafaring Pomor peoples of the Siberian coast in his essay Letter about the Northern Route to East India via the Siberian Ocean(1755), and in 1762 addressed Crown Prince Paul with a manuscript proposal on the shortest route from Northern Russia to America across the polar coast.

Other expeditions followed as Russia started to pursue the possible future advantages of the NSR, both for trade and the economic advancement in the distant Siberian regions that the development of the NSR along the coast could accomplish.Funded by Swedish and Russian entrepreneurs, Nils Nordenskiöld’s Vega Expedition of 1878-1879 was the first to fully traverse the NSR. Dmitri Mendeleev, scientist, chemist, inventor, and creator of the Periodic Table of Elements, published 36 works dedicated to Arctic exploration and icebreaker shipbuilding in collaboration with Admiral Makarov, supporting the idea of an icebreaker expedition into the Arctic Ocean to continue the exploration of the Northern Sea Route.

In 1932 Otto Schmidt, Soviet scientist and statesman, completed a voyage along the NSR from Arkhangelsk to the Pacific Ocean in the steam icebreaker Alexander Sibiryakovin 65 days without wintering – the first in history. This successful journey prompted the Soviet government to attempt to establish a regular traffic flow on the route.

Schmidt had further led another expedition in SS Chelyuskinwith the objective of traversing the NSR in one navigation and was appointed the first head of the Chief Directorate of the NSR, established in 1932. The Chelyuskinexpedition ended up in disaster, the underequipped steamship proving itself unsuitable in Arctic conditions, and Schmidt was eventually replaced; yet the Chief Directorate, also known as Glavsevmorput (Glavnoye Upravleniye Severnogo Moskogo Puti), remained the main government department concerned with the development of the NSR and the surrounding regions, until its gradual integration into the Ministry of the Maritime Fleet of the USSR in 1954. Since 1971, all arctic navigation is regulated by the Northern Sea Route Administration, currently a department of the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation.

While fascinated by the possible opportunities of the NSR, beginning with some reasonable doubts about Mikhail Lomonosov’s proposal, the Russian government had always acknowledged that the shortest and fastest route to the East was impossible, or incredibly costly, to traverse because of sea ice volumes. Currently, the navigation season is too short, and the Arctic region remains scarcely populated, with the Arctic ports underdeveloped and lacking capacity. Even with the icebreaker fleet available, the costs would be considered too high, and the weather conditions too unpredictable, to attempt a large-scale development project, no matter how much the officials would like to see the NSR become the new Suez Canal.

However, Russian maritime politics in the 21st century remained NSR-oriented, deeming the development of the NSR as one of its highest priorities. The NSR has been open for international shipping since 1991, and its geographical borders were officially established in 2012 in an amendment to the Federal Law of Shipping on the Water Area of the NSR. A translated excerpt from a 2011 analysis of the Russian NSR policies published on the Russian Maritime News website demonstrates the aspirations regarding the NSR during early 2010:

Northern Sea Route development: a part of national policy

Overall, the Russian North is a powerful development resource for Russia in the 21st century.

Exploration of the Arctic shelf resources would have to be a result of the development of related industries, high-tech spheres of engineering and transportation being the main focus.

Developing the transportation system would be essential for the steady progress of the Russian Arctic economy. The system has to ensure reliable connections, regular living conditions in the Northern territories, accelerated development of mineral deposits, and export of oil and gas. The Arctic marine transportation system is the most important for the Northern Sea Route shipments.Russia has begun integrating the Northern Sea Route into the worldwide transport network as a self-sufficient Euro-Asian transport corridor. However, the mineral resources base of the Russian Arctic shelf has a relatively low investment appeal at the moment, caused by the poor infrastructure of shelf resources shipment and production. Fossil fuel mining in the Arctic shelf risks damaging the ecological balance in the mining and oil shipment regions. This is worsened by the low rate of natural self-cleaning ability in the Arctic waters, which could lead to a long-term environmental pollution in case of an oil spill. Increased risk rate in the development of Arctic shelf deposits requires increased demands on motor vesselsproviding oil platform activities, tankers carrying hydrocarbon raw materials, and arctic marine transportation systems in general.As a consequence, it is essential to form a transport infrastructure that would ensure the safe shipment of mineral deposits, minimise risks of dangerous and emergency situations, and provide resources for the liquidation of such emergencies.

The Arctic is a significant strategic region. It is a region of interest not only for the Arctic governments such as Russia, the United States, Canada, Denmark, and Norway, but for the countries of the EU and other countries with developed economies, such as China, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore. These countries are attracted to the prospects of developing the petroleum potential of the Arctic continental shelf, as well as the possibility of shortening the transcontinental shipment route.

Arctic sea ice concentration has been fluctuating between 4 and 6 million sq km over the last few years. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC), Arctic sea ice concentration in September 2006-2010 has been:

2006          592 million sq km

2007          430 million sq km

2008          468 million sq km

2009          536 million sq km

2010          476 million sq km

While climate warming cannot rule out the exposure of mining equipment and transport vessels to dangerous hydro-meteorological conditions, it can reallocate the hazard level for various factors. The possibility of wind waves height growth and iceberg formation can increase, as well as the risk of the Arctic pack ice invading the southern sea regions. Even if the prognosis of further climate warning turns out to be true, a decrease of the Arctic ice is not likely to be rapid. Therefore, the average long-term level of ice conditions in the Arctic should be taken into account during further planning.

Anticipated consequences of global warming and active pirate attacks on the vessels that follow southern routes increase the ship owners’ interest in Arctic routes. As mineral deposits development in the Arctic intensifies, shipping traffic in the Northern Sea Route also increases.

By 2020, the overall shipment scale along the Northern Sea Route is expected to amount to 60-70 million tonnes a year. Thus, everything related to the Arctic marine transport system is a part of Russian national trans-port program, which, despite the economic difficultiesandbudget boundaries, strives to develop and perfect its material-technical base and organizational structure, creating advantageous conditions for the users of the route.

Icebreaker fleet as a foundation of safety

With the development of the NSR, the Suez and the Panama Canals can expect a serious contender of naturalorigins, and states regulating transcontinental shipment projects through Arctic routes are in for quite a high commercial and political income.

Reliable transportation of Arctic natural resources will have to be ensured with a linear icebreaker fleet, ice-class heavy-tonnage ships, communication, navigation and hydrographic systems, and further development of tariff policies and NSR management.

A powerful nuclear icebreaker fleet is a foundation of safe transport conditions in the environment of the Northern Sea Route (see Table). Today, there are 10 linear icebreakers working in the Northern Sea Route; six of these are nuclear icebreakers, including 50 Let Pobedywhich was built in 2007, and four diesel-powered icebreakers. Russian icebreaker fleet development is carried out as a part of a Federal Target Program.

Russian icebreaker fleet:

At the time [translator’s note: 2011], the Arctic cargo fleet consisted of more than 150 cargo vessels of the Arctic ice class. Its development is carried out and sponsored by shipping and resource-developing companies. Sixty more vessels are expected to be delivered by 2020.

Navigational and hydrographic support (NHS) is part of the shipping security system and 747 nautical navigation charts and 19 shipping manuals have been published for the Russian Arctic seas, with more than 1,500 navigation support equipment objects installed.

Arctic ports, excluding the Dudinka port, are regarded as the weakest link in the NSR. Because of financial constraints, technical equipment has not been modernized since 1990. Berthing structures in most of the Arctic ports require capital maintenance, reconstruction, and bottom dredging to accommodate modern shipping.

The latest development in international traffic along the NSR, however, prompted a burst of activity in the Russian NSR-related affairs. Thecontainer ship Venta Maersk successfully completed her trial passage through the Route on 28 September 2018, embarking from Vladivostok and arriving in Saint Petersburg in 37 days. With a nominal capacity of 3,596 TEU, equipped with 600 reefer plugs and a stronger ice-class hull, Venta Maerskis one of the Maersk Line’s ice-class vessels, designed for cold water, harsh environments, and year-round operations. For the first time in history, a container ship has successfully traversed the NSR, opening up new possibilities for the global trade: as the NSR is shorter than the Suez Canal, transit through it could save time and fuel. According to the Washington Post, a voyage from South Korea to Germany via the Suez Canal would take 34 days, while with the NSR, it would only take 23 days.

The vessel’s success had also been a source of environmental concern: such relatively easy transit along the Siberian coast would be a result of the climate change taking its toll on the Arctic ice. This has two sides: according to information agency SeverPress. Oleg Anisimov, professor of the Russian State Hydrological Institute, suggests that the navigation season of the NSR is going to expand from its current two months’ window to three by the mid-21st century, thus opening new possibilities for transit. Now it seems as if Russia is eager to expand the Route’s technical development much faster.

As reported by the Russian Maritime News, Offshore Marintec Russia (OMR) – a government-sponsored exhibition and conference project

concerning itself with the Russian and global shipbuilding industry and marine development – hosted a conference in Saint Petersburg on 2 October 2018. The year’s main conference topic was the Northern Sea Route and its role as the basis of the Arctic region’s complex development. Dmitry Khramov, First Deputy Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, pointed out that the region contains an immense amount of resources. It also has coal, copper, nickel, and rare-earth metal deposits, which all are a resource base for further shipments. This will require an explosive growth of transportation volumes.

The shipments in the Northern Sea Route are planned to be increased to 80 million tonnes by 2024. Such volume will require additional new icebreakers. FSUE Atomflot expects LK-60Ya class NS Arktikato be delivered by December 2019 [translator’s note: the delivery date has recently been moved to 2020]. The second and third icebreakers of this project will be delivered by 2022 to provide regular service on the NEP. FSUE Atomflot will need, as planned by the NEP directorate, four LNG-powered icebreakers of 40 MW power (LK-40) and two additional 60 MW (LK-60) ships by 2025.

According to SeverPress, nuclear icebreaker shortfall along the Northern Sea Route will be compensated with liquefied natural gas (LNG)-powered icebreakers, as reported by FSUE Atomflot technical exploitation director Oleg Darbinyan during the second conference on LNG-fleet and LNG-bunkering in Russia. According to Darbinyan, an explosive growth of traffic flow in the NSR is expected from 2019 to 2025, as a result of large hydrocarbon project developments in the Russian Arctic region, as the IAA Port News reports. By 2030 the anticipated traffic flow could reach 115 million tonnes of cargo a year. As Oleg Darbinyan suggests, this rate can reach 16-18 million tonnes in 2018, and 25 million tonnes in 2019, and he is confident that the expectation for the increase of the traffic flow in the NSR will be realized.

Further construction of the icebreaker fleet, including not only nuclear but also LNG-powered icebreakers, is planned for the maintenance of such a flow. As explained by Darbinyan, a series of four LNG icebreakers is expected to be less expensive and faster to build. Plans of theAker ARC 123 projecthavealready been finished, and requests for tender have been sent to Russian dockyards capable of carrying them out. The first LNG icebreaker construction is planned to be started in 2019, with completion expected in 2023.

‘The LNG-powered icebreakers are planned to be used in the estuary of Ob and other Siberian rivers. They will concentrate on operational support of the current and prospective projects of the NOVATEK company, such as Yamal LNG, Arctic LNG, as well as Taymyr coal exports of the VostokUgol company,’ Oleg Darbinyan added.

As SeverPress had reported earlier in October, integration of four LNG icebreakers is a part of the modernization and primary infrastructure development plan, approved by the Russian Federation government through to 2024. It is funded with 587.5 billion rubles, 265.9 from the federal budget. Development of the NSR will involve a package of measures such as the construction of Global Maritime Distress and Safety System equipment, construction of a base and mooring berth for rescue vessels in Murmansk, and a year-round LNG dispatch from the Sabetta port. Moreover, NSR port infrastructure development is planned, including construction of the LNG and natural-gas condensate terminal Utrenniy in the Sabetta port, as well as reconstruction of the port’s approach channel. The capacity of the sea ports along the NSR is planned to be increased by 21.6 million tonnes.

As the annual shipment volumes in the Russian Arctic are expected to increase to 80 million tonnes by 2024, FSUE Atomflot will present a further infrastructure development plan at the beginning of 2019. Vyacheslav Ruksha, NSR Rosatom Direction Director, adds that the plan aims at creating an ‘ice road’ that would allow for the management of major projects in the Arctic region.

Further development plans don’t simply focus on icebreaker construction. According to SeverPress, by 2020 Russian scientists expect to develop an experimental prototype of a device capable of remotely measuring Arctic sea ice thickness. This will reduce the costs for traversing the NSR for the vessels that are currently obliged to employ icebreakers. The news was reported by Alexander Rodin, head of the applied infrared spectroscopy laboratory of the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, who summarised the results of the ‘Russian Arctic Development Scenarios’ expert seminar which took place in Naryan-Mar.

According to Rodin, the goal is to optimise and minimise the costs of traversing the NSR for vessels, and possibly to expand the navigation season. If the project is successfully realized, the new technology development will help sea captains to regulate the ice situation in a span of hundreds of kilometers, and to choose the optimal route.

While the Venta Maersk’s voyage went as planned, and proved that it is possible to navigate the passage in September, the ship still required Russian icebreaker assistance. Palle Laursen, head of Maersk Line Ship Management, concluded that they do not see the Northern Sea Route ‘as a viable commercial alternative to existing east-west routes’ (source: Maersk) due to high costs and a limited navigation season. While the Washington Posthad already suggested that the NSR could be the new Suez Canal, other sources insist that a transition from one firmly established trading route to another does not happen so quickly or so easily. In any case, while the melting of the Arctic ice is a source of grave concern for environmentalists, it could also open up new possibilities, and potentially change the map of international maritime relations – a fascinating affair for all sides involved.

Written, edited, and translated for the NHSA (Naval Historical Society of Australia) by Alexandra Murtazaeva.

For reasons of space, a list of sources (translated from Russian) has been omitted, but is available from the Society on request.